John Handford - 04/11/2018

Taking back control.


Take back control of our democracy

I’ve heard it many times; “You lost, get over it!” However, it has also been said many times that the 2016 EU referendum wasn't like a football match. There is no winning or losing side as we are all in this together. The country as a whole will be better or worse off as a result of the very serious games being played with our lives.

The “deal” is also like no other deal you come across in general life, so the usual logic does not apply. Usually if you walk away from a deal you remain in the exact same position as you were previously as nothing has changed. With Brexit however, if we walk away without a deal we go to a very different place. It's more like agreeing to move to a new house, demolishing your old one then deciding you don't like the new one and refusing it - now you've got no roof over your head. That's something to get across to those who say, "I just want out mate". Oh yes, where are you going?

To give a clue to what's going on and to indicate the level of misunderstanding and miscalculation in parliament by those in the driving seat you've only got to look at all the vile vitriol that came out against the Prime Minister from nameless swivel eyed Brexiteers in her own Tory party when the PM suggested extending the transition period. It's as if they were throwing a tantrum because they realised they could not get their own way.

In desperation they even suggested replacing Theresa May with David Davis - the man whose job it was to take the UK out of the EU but resigned when he realised he couldn't do it. And Boris Johnson's people were then briefing against David Davis claiming he was in the Brexit secretary job for two and a half years and failed, so is not fit for the job of PM. Do they think their man Johnson was a success at foreign secretary and would be any better? And then there's the 19th century Jacob Rees-Mogg. If his ERG group had a viable plan for Brexit it would publish a serious white paper but we don't get anything that stands up to a short argument.

Talking of white papers, the government published a little known one, after all the Brexiteer pressure to write the 29th March 2019 as the leaving date into the EU (Withdrawal) Act 2018. It was to "save" the effect of the 1972 European Communities Act until 31 December 2020. So, the leaving date has no legal effect. Sleight of hand to save its own skin.

There was a chance to leave the EU with a Norway type deal offered by the EU some time ago but because "freedom of movement" had been weaponised as a xenophobic rant to thus end it, despite the damage to the NHS etc, that was never going to fly. Instead the Brexiteers have been expecting to go on a cherry-picking fest and stuff their face with cake, expecting the EU commission will back down because of the "they need us more than we need them" clap trap. But it's not worked out like that of course. The EU Commission has been extremely stable and has not changed its tune all along. The only possibility of instability was in member states with the odd comment but when it comes down to the EU 27's best interest, it's the preservation of the EU. The only unstable state has been the UK and what a state we're in.

Johnson and Davis have pushed Canada as a deal but they haven't got a clue as it does nothing for services and will either require, under the legally binding Good Friday agreement, a border in the Irish sea which will annex Northern Ireland, or the whole of the UK stays in a customs agreement or arrangement, locked into EU rules ad-infinitum because of the required backstop guarantee. They've realised this and hence the reaction to Mrs May's suggestion of extensions.

Michael Gove suggested a "Norway for now" model transitioning to a Canada or something deal later. It would park us in the EEA for a while whilst we negotiated an FTA with the EU. But Norway are not keen on the UK jumping in when they are the big fish in their small pond along with Iceland and Liechtenstein. Besides, the Northern Ireland backstop will still be needed.

The Canada solutions require either the UK staying closely aligned with the EU to minimise border check friction for trade and keeping the Northern Ireland border open. That prevents us agreeing FTAs elsewhere. Or if the UK really wants to negotiate FTAs, then the border goes in the Irish Sea. With Northern Ireland annexed, or with the threat of it being economically held back, then under the Good Friday agreement a border poll could be triggered reuniting the island of Ireland. So that's Northern Ireland gone. The DUP know this and threaten to pull the plug.

Whatever Northern Ireland gets Scotland will want as they want to be in the EU and even the Scottish Tories are demanding this, or they will lose out to the SDP and Labour. Scotland could be next to go.

How are we doing for sovereignty and taking back control so far?

How about no deal and WTO? Well, we are not even going to find that easy as various countries including Russia and Canada have raised objections to the UK coming on board in our own right as they not unsurprisingly want to see what the UK's eventual relationship with the EU is first and when is that going to be resolved?

How about an FTA with the USA? Well things are going a little sour there too, they have a lot more power than us if we are out of the EU as it's "America First" and do we really want to drop all our food and animal welfare standards to allow the import of chlorinated chicken and hormone injected beef, changing our laws to suit the USA? Not to mention opening up our NHS to take over by US corporations. How's that for sovereignty and taking back control?

We've got 150 days to go before the Article 50 process deadline expires. We have no deliverable Brexit that is in any way workable or acceptable with a likely majority because we've left it too late to negotiate something else as we've allowed rich idiots who are more interested in their own twisted careers, money or anti EU ideology to herd us towards a cliff edge. And nobody is admitting we are screwed in order to save their own positions. May's strategy seems to be to leave admitting the truth until it's too late. Then what?

(1) Either we get locked into a miserable Mrs May's deal becoming a vassal state satellite to the EU trapped in a legal cage with no say on the running of the EU - and don't think for one moment this is the fault of the EU - it's entirely the fault of those who have been pushing for this impossible project and haven’t got a clue what they are doing or don't care about the consequences because they'll be alright. You know who they are.

Or

(2) We crash out with no deal and say goodbye to large parts of our manufacturing and service industry and suffer a massive economic hit. To survive there is a plan by some to turn the UK into an offshore Singapore, scrapping workers’ rights, environmental and other protections. Their preferred option all along. I say the "UK" but there's little chance of it staying together in such circumstances and who would want to live in what’s left?

Or

(3) We take back control and stop this nonsense. Writing to MPs and demanding a People's Vote is part of this and is rapidly becoming the ladder by which politicians can climb out of the hole they have dug themselves into. Through one means or another Article 50(2) notice must be withdrawn. That will come from a sensible majority once it's finally realised that there is no deliverable Brexit that is compatible with its own impossible promises.

Write to your MP now: https://www.peoples-vote.uk/write_this_wrong

Credits

John Handford, EU Movement Macclesfield
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