Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including PMQs

2.23pm BST

This is from the Financial Times editor Lionel Barber.

Sturgeon pledges #indyref2 by May 2021 - if UK leaves EU. Caveat important. No majority for Scottish independence right now, but #Brexit changes everything. Do Nigel Farage and @Jacob_Rees_Mogg care about territorial integrity of UK?

2.11pm BST

Here is the Scottish government’s news release about Sturgeon’s announcement.

Former Ukip leader outlines ambition to take control of Brexit process at rally in Clacton

Nigel Farage has returned to the seaside town where Ukip had its first MP elected five years ago, promising at a rally in Clacton that his new Brexit party will use the momentum of European elections to oust a “remain parliament”.

Railing against a “political class” who he said had betrayed the people of Britain, Farage claimed to hundreds of supporters on Clacton pier that what was at stake was not just Brexit, but whether or not Britain was a democratic country.

The UK’s Brexit debate has restarted after a 10-day break just as before, only with a new end date of 31 October. Brexiteers continue to press for the Irish backstop to be replaced with alternative arrangements, while the government and the Labour front bench seem to be making little progress in finding a consensus position.

But once again, scant attention is being paid to the other side of the negotiating table. If we look more closely there, we find hardening attitudes across the EU to anything other than the UK leaving on the basis of the withdrawal agreement, regardless of the flaws that have seen this rejected three times by parliament. Just as with the Greek debt crisis, the EU now wants to see proposals adopted, direction set and to deal with the problems later.

The UK must weigh its ties to the US and Australia against the value of Chinese friendship

It may sound like an argument about technology, but in reality it is a battle of geopolitics. Should Brexit Britain yield to pressure from the US and ban Chinese hi-tech manufacturer Huawei from supplying kit to British mobile phone companies?

Or should the UK keep the door open to China – and benefit not just from cheaper technology but across the economy in sectors such as nuclear power, where the world’s most populous country has shown it is willing to invest.

Ending current session now could help May bring her deal back. But it would open a can of worms with her party, DUP and Queen’s speech.

The post PM’s latest headache? Whether to extend Parliament session appeared first on InFacts.

The British are celebrated for their ability to laugh at themselves. Which is good – because we’re not celebrated for much else at the moment. But even our talent for self-mockery is being strained. The cause is understandable: Westminster’s incompetence is so farcical it should be funny. But it’s not. We’re in danger of becoming a nation of dour, po-faced haters (and self-haters). So thank the lord for Manchester City fans. And as a Man United fan I never thought I’d hear myself say that.

In these dark days it is the blue half of Manchester that is showing the rest of the country it is still possible to not take yourself too seriously. City learned the hard way. They endured 35 years of pain – not winning a single trophy while United swept up everything in front of them. And in that time they learned the invaluable lesson – it’s best to poke fun at yourself before others get the chance.

On Easter Sunday, explosions across Sri Lanka killed hundreds of people and wounded many more. As the country reels in shock, Michael Safi describes reporting in the aftermath. Plus: the Guardian’s chief political correspondent, Jessica Elgot, on what to expect from Brexit now parliament is back

On Easter Sunday, eight explosions killed more than 321 people in Sri Lanka, including 45 children, and left over 500 wounded. It was among the worst terrorist attacks worldwide since 9/11.

The Sri Lankan government has been criticised for a serious security lapse before the suicide bombings, after it was alerted that the terrorist group National Thowheeth Jama’ath was planning to attack churches, but failed to take action against them or pass on the warning. Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the bombings, though as yet there is no evidence to back this up. Sri Lanka’s defence minister said it appeared the attacks were in retaliation for the recent mass shooting in Christchurch, New Zealand.

Little progress as talks resume, with Labour seeking changes to political declaration

Labour has accused Theresa May of failing to offer any substantive changes to her Brexit deal in cross-party talks, as Downing Street’s hopes of a breakthrough in time to avoid taking part in European parliamentary elections waned.

Brexit talks resumed on Tuesday between a team of ministers and shadow ministers. But Labour sources said the government team again appeared unwilling to countenance changes to the political declaration, which sets out the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

Ads run by Lynton Crosby firm may have collected emails, says information commissioner

A million Britons responded to a secretive Facebook campaign for a hard Brexit overseen by Lynton Crosby’s company, according to the information commissioner, who said the respondents’ email addresses may have been harvested for future use.

Elizabeth Denham told MPs her investigation into the Mainstream Network campaign group had raised concerns about how valuable voter data was being collected by the under-the-radar campaign, potentially in breach of data protection rules.

Imagine that, for some reason, you want to lose an election. You need a vote-repellent campaign, something really unsupportable. You would probably form the Establishment party – passionately in favour of the system, cheering for the status quo. Your candidates would boast of their credentials as career politicians. Their slogan would be “business as usual”.

This imaginary party is the perfect adversary, the most beatable thing in British politics – which is why real-life parties all want to run against it. Everyone claims to be the new politics and pins the despicable badge of oldness on their rivals.

Brexit party candidates prove as unconvincing as their leader in vowing to emancipate the people

You’d have thought that if Theresa May was really serious about the UK not taking part in the European elections, she might have chosen not to spend the whole of last week on holiday. And that she might have been pushing ahead to get her deal through parliament sometime this week. Or next. Instead her team have been involved in ongoing half-hearted talks with Labour that everyone knows will inevitably end in deadlock. The most interesting development to emerge so far has been the varied sandwich menu.

But the prime minister is a woman who likes to have a plan. Even if her plan is to have no plan. So the government is adamant there is no need for it to make any more than cursory arrangements for the elections due to take place in four weeks’ time. The Conservatives are the uncoiled spring. Poised to give the appearance of being taken by surprise. Not everyone is quite so convinced the elections won’t happen, which is why they have been using the time since article 50 was extended until October to prepare for them.

Kirkella owners concerned that UK fleet could lose access to waters off non-EU states

The biggest whitefish trawler in the UK fleet sailed up the Thames on Tuesday to highlight the threats facing the fishing industry if Brexit negotiations fail to deliver a deal.

The Kirkella, based at Hull, can catch 2.3 million fish on every two-month voyage, plying the seas of the Arctic, Greenland, Norway and the north-east Atlantic. Built last year, it has travelled to the Arctic five times so far, and on Wednesday it will be officially named and launched by the Princess Royal at Greenwich in London. Spectators will be treated to 3,000 free portions of fish and chips.

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, as MPs return to the Commons after the Easter recess with the Brexit deadlock continuing

• Lunchtime summary
• Afternoon summary

5.47pm BST

Labour's Jeremy Corbyn calls on government to change its approach to cross-party #Brexit talks: "They cannot keep on just regurgitating what has already been emphatically rejected three times by Parliament"https://t.co/rSOx2TsKyN pic.twitter.com/EqV388R8Xw

[The executive] have to decide whether they wish to change the rules or not.

I suspect quite a robust discussion will take place, because the executive represents all wings of the party. Eventually a motion will be put and that will be voted on.

Meeting now. Different views about how to proceed. Options a) force May to name a date b) change rules to allow a new ballot (90+ MPs threshold) c) do neither and let her stand down on own terms. One Brexiteer ‘22 officer told me remainers trying to protect May... https://t.co/vgwYZTmVR2

I am disappointed because it will change the nature of the event a great deal, for us the centre of the events was meant to be the veterans.

It’s the 75th anniversary, this is probably the last time they will get together like this, the last time when they will meet the Queen, the last time the people of the city will be in a big event with them.

5.29pm BST

International development minister Lord Bates has resigned from the government, forcing Theresa May into the latest of a long series of changes to her administration. As the Press Association reports, the Tory peer offered his resignation last year after turning up late for a parliamentary appearance, but it was refused by the Prime Minister. There was no immediate explanation for his decision to go now.

A former Downing Street aide to David Cameron, Lady Sugg, has been appointed junior minister in the Department for International Development, moving from the Department for Transport. Her place at the DFT is taken by Lady Vere of Norbiton. Both continue to serve as whips in the House of Lords.

EU citizens, teachers and carers also among anti-Brexit party’s 70 European election hopefuls

The anti-Brexit party Change UK has launched its European elections campaign, revealing a slate of 70 candidates that includes Boris Johnson’s sister, seasoned politicians disillusioned with their parties, and people completely new to politics.

Rachel Johnson said she was standing to make sure Brexit did not wreck the chances of a bright future for her children and other young people, and that her decision to stand was not an attack on her Brexiter brother.

PM faces pressure from her cabinet, the parliamentary party, grassroots activists, donors and other parties

Theresa May returns from the Easter recess facing pressure from all quarters of her party to consider her position as prime minister – but secure in the knowledge that there remains very little they can do to force her to go. Here’s a look at the pressure points on her.

Some 1922 Committee members want to change rules to allow second no-confidence vote

Senior Conservatives are to vote on whether to make it easier to force Theresa May out of office within weeks by changing the party’s rules to allow a no-confidence motion at any time.

The 1922 Committee will meet later on Tuesday to discuss amending its rules, which currently state a leader cannot face a second no-confidence motion within a year of the previous one.

Libertarian Claire Fox is one of five new candidates announced for European elections

Nigel Farage’s Brexit party has unveiled a former revolutionary communist who once supported Irish republicanism and opposed the Good Friday peace deal as one of five new candidates for the European elections.

Claire Fox, who now styles herself as a libertarian and is a panellist on BBC Radio 4’s Moral Maze programme, told the launch event she most likely only agreed with Farage on one issue – Brexit.

UK visit due to happen alongside US president’s commemoration of D-Day. EU’s role in security of continent couldn’t be more pertinent.

The post State visit is chance to remind Trump of EU’s role in peace appeared first on InFacts.

If Tory MPs get rid of May as their leader, the political crisis will get even messier. But there will still be lots of ways to stop Brexit.

The post 4 ways to stop Brexit if Tories oust May appeared first on InFacts.

In the European elections, in just 31 days’ time, Britain faces a stark choice. Will we back Nigel Farage or stop him? To stop Farage, Labour must come out on top. This isn’t just a mathematical and presentational reality (no other opposition party is likely to outpoll him), it is also a political imperative. For to defeat Farage, it is essential that we not only outvote him but also overwhelm his hard-right Thatcherite ideology.

Related: Nigel and Annunziata’s Brexit show basks in the sun, but winter is coming

By influencing the policies of Labour and the Tories, parties such as the Women’s Equality party effect change, whatever their results

Technology sometimes reminds you that the unpredictable is actually all too predictable. At its last extraordinary general meeting, the national executive for the Women’s Equality party finalised a snap general election strategy. Now I was emailing for the fifth time in as many months to request yet another EGM – the word extraordinary was beginning to lose all meaning. I began typing apprehensively, “I’m afraid it looks as though we are headed for …” – only for Gmail’s autocomplete function to suggest, without pause or irony, “another election”.

Don’t get me wrong: the WE desperately wants to fight the European elections. And we will. The resurgence of far-right politics across Europe threatens women and minorities in ways the political establishment cannot begin to understand. The two largest political parties are tying themselves in knots in their attempts to take back control – of their own backbenches. Both the government and opposition will be asking voters to send their candidates to Europe in order to ensure that we leave.

A generation of networked rebels will bring down an old order whose failings have been laid bare

I am a fan of generation gaps. Though academics and the media love to identify new demographic cohorts – Generation X, Generation Z, Net Gen, Gen Wii – such distinctions often confuse mere fashion with decisive transformations in behaviour, social priority and worldview. But we need such transformations, the inter-generational arguments that they spawn, and the changes that, sooner or later, they compel upon us all.

Related: Extinction Rebellion: protesters to offer to 'pause' climate action

While bumper crop of pro-European MEPs would be great, a majority voting for pro-EU parties is key to winning public vote on Brexit.

The post Overall pro-EU vote is best measure of election success appeared first on InFacts.

Brexiters have been blasé about border politics since 2016. Now Congress speaker warns it could make their US trade dream a “non starter”.

The post Irish border could cost Brexiters their US trade fantasy appeared first on InFacts.

Long-winded timetables that have been suggested can be shortened. Real problem is not law and procedure but lack of political commitment.

The post Actually, there is time to put it to the people appeared first on InFacts.

Donald Tusk, the European council president, has turned his fire on senior MEPs after he was accused of dividing the EU and prolonging the Brexit crisis for Europe by delaying it to 31 October. The European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, had warned during a Brexit debate that the EU27’s decision last week would 'poison' the European elections in which Britain would now need to take part. Tusk replied by saying Verhofstadt should 'deeply rethink and reformulate' his argument, since he was 'heartily and energetically applauded' by Nigel Farage

• Donald Tusk chastises MEPs over criticism of 31 October Brexit delay
  

Exhausted MPs return home for Easter break while May stresses ‘need for reflection’

Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, trying to make sense of the nonsensical since June 2016. If you would like to receive this as a weekly email, please sign up here. And catch our monthly Brexit Means podcast here.

After all that excitement, the briefing is taking a break and will be back on 30 April.

Telegraph says Johnson columns not “serious, empirical, in-depth analysis of hard factual matters”. That very much applies to latest claims.

The post Boris plan to heal country isn’t ‘serious analysis’ either appeared first on InFacts.

Genius idea came from loaded polling by eurosceptic think tank Open Europe. Pulling wool over voters’ eyes is disingenuous and won’t work.

The post Latest ruse to pass May’s deal? Just ignore all the bad bits appeared first on InFacts.

Britain is due to remain an EU member until 31 October after agreeing a six-month extension

This week, a six-hour debate among EU leaders concluded with Theresa May being offered a six-month extension to article 50.

Britain will remain a member state of the EU until 31 October, with the option to leave earlier if the prime minister can secure House of Commons support for her Brexit deal.

The former Ukip leader launched his new party on Friday, pledging there would be 'no more Mr Nice Guy'. Farage hit out at both the Conservative and Labour parties and said the two-party system was 'unfit for purpose', during his launch speech in Coventry, which was held days after Britain was granted a second Brexit delay. 'Our leaders are happy to continue down the path of managed decline. I genuinely believe right now, this nation, we are lions led by donkeys,' Farage said.

Owen Jones speaks to Mary Lou McDonald about Brexit, the implications for the peace process and the possibility of a united Ireland, and tries to answer once and for all why her party will never take its seats in the British parliament 

Bitterly divided, their vote could be squeezed between pro and anti-Brexit parties. This may represent an opportunity for pro-Europeans.

The post Tories face European Parliament election nightmare appeared first on InFacts.

Potential Labour voters overwhelmingly want a public vote. If party ignores this, many votes will go to more legitimately pro-EU parties.

The post Labour should embrace public vote pledge in EU elections appeared first on InFacts.

Six-month extension presents opportunities, complications and more uncertainty

In the short term, the party is prepared to continue talks with Theresa May to try to see whether a compromise can be found on the future relationship that both sides can support. Two key problems threaten the prospect of success: the prime minister’s almost non-existent authority, and whether it is ultimately ever going to be in Labour’s interests to do a deal with the Tories.

The summit on Wednesday was off to promising start as Angela Merkel approached Theresa May to share something on her iPad. May burst out laughing with Merkel when she saw what was on the device: a photo montage of the two leaders speaking in their respective parliaments earlier that day. Both were wearing a jacket in the same vivid shade of blue – which could be described as EU flag blue. The European council president, Donald Tusk, and Luxembourg's prime minister, Xavier Bettel, were also amused. One of the council’s most senior officials smiled politely.

Theresa May has until 31 October to get her deal through parliament - but the way forward remains unclear

After the EU granted a Brexit extension until 31 October, or sooner if Theresa May can get a deal through the Commons before then, we look at the embattled prime minister’s options.

French president compared to De Gaulle as he seeks to get on with mission to change EU

Emmanuel Macron’s tough-guy stance at the EU summit – refusing the UK a much longer Brexit extension – was partly down to the French president’s personality, but his reasoning was political.

The 41-year-old, who stood for president without ever having run an election campaign then promised a grand plan to reform the European Union, is known for his impatience. He wants action. He likes to be centre stage.

EU agrees to extend Brexit to 31 October provided UK operates as a member state with ‘sincere cooperation’

It was an epic night, starting with a joke between Theresa May and Angela Merkel, involving nine hours of talks over a dinner of scallop salad, cod loin and macadamia nut parfait, and finishing with an extension and a warning to Britain from the European council leader, Donald Tusk: “Do not waste this time.”

European commission president Jean-Claude Juncker says he regrets that 'we only talk about Brexit' at the expense of other EU achievements,  as EU leaders announced they have given Theresa May a new Brexit deadline of 31 October, four months longer than the prime minister asked for. 'I read the European press this morning, and it was all Brexit, Brexit, Brexit,' Juncker says, but admits everything must be done to avoid a hard Brexit. Theresa May said she was still hopeful of reaching a deal by 22 May, avoiding the need to take part in European elections. European council president Jean-Claude Juncker said it was better to have 'a piece of something than all of nothing' and urged the UK not to 'waste this time'.

In a rare turn of events, the British prime minister was not the most irritating EU leader at the summit table

Follow all the latest developments - live

Theresa May’s last rendezvous with European Union leaders in Brussels didn’t go well. Her performance was described as “awful dreadful [and] evasive”, while officials complained she didn’t have a plan.

Nearly three weeks later the prime minister was back at the EU summit table with a very similar request: she wanted more time to find a Brexit compromise at home to avoid a damaging crash-out exit.

Theresa May has won a vote on requesting an article 50 extension until 30 June. The motion was approved with a majority of 310. Most of the prime minister's support was provided by the opposition, with only 131 of the votes coming from Conservative MPs. The leader of the House of Commons, Andrea Leadsom, and the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, did not vote with the government

As Tory tensions over leaving the EU continue to grow, John Harris and John Domokos take a trip through the Conservatives' Thames valley heartlands, starting in Theresa May's backyard. It's all there: unbelievable opulence, social decay and a bitter clash between a neighbouring remainer Tory MP and the hardcore local leavers who claim he is a 'traitor' 

The prime minister, Theresa May, released a video statement  from 10 Downing Street on Sunday to warn that the UK parliament needs to pass a withdrawal deal in order to deliver Brexit.

Her comments come as she tries to reach an agreement with the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, on a deal that she can persuade MPs to vote through parliament. She said: 'The choice that lies ahead of us is either leaving the Europeon Union with a deal, or not leaving at all'

The House of Commons has approved legislation to prevent a potentially disorderly Brexit departure next week without a deal being reached. Yvette Cooper's bill forces prime minister Theresa May to extend the 12 April deadline if no deal has been agreed. It passed its third reading by a majority of only one vote, 313 votes to 312. It now has to pass the upper chamber, the House of Lords. May said she would seek another short extension to Brexit beyond 12 April in order to try and work with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn to get her thrice-rejected Brexit deal approved by parliament

Labour leader says: ‘There hasn't been as much change as I had expected’ following discussions with the prime minister aimed at breaking the Brexit deadlock. Both Labour and Downing Street described the discussions as ‘constructive’ and said they would hold technical talks, facilitated by civil servants, on Thursday

• Corbyn and May agree to more talks after 'constructive' first day

L4E secretary Andy Pye talks to his friend and former business colleague Chris Rand, who came down from Cambridge to experience his first London march for the People's Vote campaign.

The campaign is now more than a protest. We are, as Mike Galsworthy says, building a community. A community which is based on a solid foundation, is here to stay and will sustain until the end of the Brexit episode. It is a community which can put comfortably over a million like-minded people onto the streets of London. A community which is based on a solid foundation, is here to stay and will sustain until the end of the Brexit episode. It is a community which can put comfortably over a million like-minded people onto the streets of London.  How extraordinary that as many as 1 in 40 of the entire population of the UK took time off to visit London and protest - just think of what that means.

Leavers think so; but the question is different

London4Europe Committee member Michael Romberg looks at the opinion polls and sets out the arguments to make to those who think that a referendum on the terms would just be asking the same question again until Leave voters get it right.

Join us on the march for a People’s Vote on the 23 March in central London and show again that the will of the people is now to get a vote on the final Brexit deal. 

History is unfolding in front of our eyes, dizzyingly fast and with all the votes, amendments and amended amendments it can be easy to lose track of where we are and the fact remaining is still possible. This last week in Parliament, through all of the twists and turns of voices and votes lost, a couple of things are clear.

Sovereignty, freedom of movement, national identity

London4Europe Committee member Michael Romberg sets out the case. The harms of Brexit are real but we have a positive case to argue for. Economic prosperity is important but still just a means to an end. Leavers are right in this: the EU is a political project; the issues that matter are sovereignty, democracy, freedom, sense of community with particular reference to freedom of movement, sense of national identity. 

A huge Government defeat but not yet a victory

Charles Parselle reviews the government’s latest defeat and asks what will it take for MPs, so confident in their own ability to vote and vote again, to trust the electorate on whose behalf they supposedly hold their positions.

Hundreds of thousands of people marched in London last October for a People’s Vote on the final deal for Brexit. It was the biggest march since the anti-war protest in 2003 and sent a powerful message to our politicians here and in the rest of Europe that there is huge support for another vote.

It was a beautiful, sunny day and everyone was good natured and friendly. I have been on every march since the referendum and it was the only one when due to the sheer scale of numbers that I arrived in Parliament Square long after the speeches had finished. There were people from all walks of life and from every corner of the country and many families with young children who will never enjoy the rights and privileges I have been fortunate enough to enjoy and benefit from for almost my whole adult life, if Brexit goes ahead.

The Put it to the People march planned for 23rd March is so important. Tell everyone about it. It will only be six days before the UK is currently due to leave the European Union and it is a matter of urgency that as many people as possible come. It may be our last chance. We know far more now about the damaging consequences of Brexit than we did almost three years ago and those consequences will be with us for generations to come. There is too much to lose and it is still not too late.

If you want to attend the People's Vote March, click here to sign up. 

Maggy is a supporter and volunteer for European Movement and the People's Vote campaign. 

The single market enables British jobs

Under the single market with freedom of movement British citizens may easily establish businesses in other EU countries. Our correspondent, Penny Howard, did just that. She set up Beyondtheyelladog as a company providing tourists with artistic and cultural experiences to enable them to deepen their experience of Italy. Brexit threatens the feasibility of such businesses. Penny Howard's business is now facing closure.

Following the vote for Britain to leave the European Union the future of the European Structural and Investment Funds programme has been called into question. These programmes total 17.2billion Euros from 2014 to 2020 and provide funds to support schemes that help local areas to grow in disadvantaged areas in Britain. There are over 1,000 individual schemes.

I sympathise. I really really do.

London4Europe Committee member Michael Romberg whole-heartedly agrees with the public’s main demand for Brexit. But it is Remain that delivers, not any of the Brexits on offer.

The biggest desire of the British people is not to take back control or to have peace in Europe. It is that the whole question of Brexit should just go away. I sympathise. It is what I really really want. But neither the Government’s nor the public’s methods for ending the Brexit debate work. Here’s why.

Everything needs a plan

London4Europe Committee member and former HM Treasury senior civil servant Michael Romberg reminds us of the core case for a referendum.

The case for a referendum is very simple. In 2016 Leave had no plan. As we have been told, there is "a special place in hell ... for those who promised Brexit without even a sketch of a plan for carrying it out safely".  

No doubt every Leave voter knew what they wanted. None knew what they would get. No-one in 2016 promised any of the three possible Brexits: a May/Corbyn deal, No-deal or a revived May deal.

2016 was a vote on an idea. No-one takes a project from idea to implementation without reviewing the plan. The same people as approved the exploration of the idea should vote on whether they like the plan. That is honourable fair and democratic.

Sure, people were told there would be just one shot. But that only made sense if Leave had a plan. They didn't.

Critics will claim that protesting is an outdated habit that people have taken on through centuries to make themselves feel useful and in the right even though it doesn’t achieve change. One may or may not agree. However, on top of making one feel exemplary, marching for a People’s Vote or protesting is a great way for a citizen to exercise his or her democratic right of freedom of expression for a cause they believe in. On the 20th of October 2018, over 700.000 protesters claimed the streets of London, voicing their opposition to Brexit and seeking a People’s vote on the final Brexit deal. It was one of the biggest mass mobilisations of its kind in the UK. The people marched not just to feel virtuous but because so much is at stake for them and because Brexit will have a detrimental effect on their lives. The march increased the legitimacy of the issue, social media visibility was over the roof, the message spread all across the UK and the world and many politicians made statements acknowledging the importance of the event.

In October 2018 700,000 people like you took part in one of the largest marches ever staged in London to demand a People’s Vote.

Since then it has become clear that more and more people who voted Leave in 2016 are now aware of the true reality of what leaving the Euopean Union will mean to them and future generations.

Parliament is divided and based on what we now know about the consequences for the UK, the chances of a People’s Vote are higher than ever before so we need to march again to reinforce the message that the country should be given the opportunity to decide once and for all whether to leave or remain in the EU.

Please join us as you could be one of those people who played a part in changing the course of our history by demanding a People’s Vote.

See you in London on 23rd March at 12pm. 

To find out more and sign up, click here

John is a supporter of the People's Vote campaign

European Movement member Paula Welch wrote the following account of a recent dinner Eastbourne European Movement held.

Professor Roger Eatwell, University of Bath was the speaker at our January dinner held at the Hydro Hotel and attended by over 70 members and their guests. His talk centred on his latest book about national populism, a movement that in the early years of the 21st Century is increasingly challenging mainstream politics in the West.

He explained that national populism is not simply a passing protest but reflects views deeply held by many in the electorate who feel they have been neglected even held in contempt by distant mainstream elites. He and co-author Prof Matthew Goodwin had decided to write the book amid two moments that had shocked the West and few pundits saw coming: when Donald Trump was elected President and when British voters stunned the world by voting for Brexit.

This piece was sent in by George Stevenson.

One of the most potent slogans from the 2016 Leave campaign was ‘Take Back Control’. Somehow, it promised a future where free British citizens (or subjects, perhaps), would control their own futures, without any form of external interference

2½ years later, and the reality looks rather different. But sovereignty still exerts a powerful pull; previous London4Europe blogs have highlighted that this may have been a factor in the votes of voters across the generally affluent South East of England, where complaints about ‘left behind’ communities may have been less prevalent

This idea of having control over our own affairs seems to be very deep rooted. At an individual level, most of us will remember resentments as children about being told to do something we didn’t want to do, and this may last into adulthood as well. As the parent of a 4-year old, I’m acutely conscious of the resistance (or stubbornness) of children if they don’t want to do something. Being without someone telling you what to do is seductive goal for many teenagers

At the level of countries or societies, freedom from an overbearing ruler, and having control over your own affairs, is a recurring theme. From ‘no taxation without representation’ prior to the American War of Independence, through the French Revolution, the emergence of new countries from the Austro-Hungarian empire in 1918, the dismantling of the European empires in the years after the Second World War, to the collapse of communism in Central & Eastern Europe in 1989, self-determination for a people or a country has been a powerful, siren image.

So we shouldn’t dismiss this as an argument for Leave voters. Even pointing out that it’s the quality of government that’s important, not whether or not we have ‘full ‘control’ probably won’t cut much ice. Our parents are (mostly) benign, and want what’s best for us, but that doesn’t prevent us from sometimes resenting what they’re telling us to do.

Theresa May’s opportunity to outfox us?

The emphasis on avoiding No-deal and on extending the Article 50 time-table presents Theresa May with a clear opportunity to outfox us. We have to focus on the referendum, writes London4Europe Committee member Michael Romberg.

What people are trying to do

People have been mesmerised by the threat of No-deal. Sure, it would be really bad. A third of the country wants it to happen. It could happen by accident. It is the default legal position.

But very few MPs want it. For all her faults Theresa May has a sense of responsibility, even if it is selective. So in spite of the rhetoric it is hard to believe that the Government would actually be willing to countenance No-deal.

Theresa May presents her deal as the way to stop No-deal. The main focus of non-Government efforts is delay: an extension of the Article 50 time period to allow more debate. But it’s not as though we have been short of time: 30 months was quite enough for a serious debate of options and the building of a consensus. What we have not done is face up to realities and policy trade-offs – we seem to need deadlines to even begin to do that. Nor is there any point in an extension for a general election – that could not resolve Brexit.

Separately, once we have agreed a course of action with the EU we will need time to implement it.

The EU’s views

The EU is like everyone else. They will agree to something to please someone else if it is in their own interests.

Brexit is a tedious distraction and they wish it to be over. But they also wish to avoid No-deal, and the blame for it. Having the UK stay in the EU is also something the EU would like, although perhaps increasingly said through gritted teeth. Preserving the integrity and coherence of the Single Market and EU institutions will not be sacrificed for the sake of keeping one country in.

An extension to before the date of the European Parliament elections (23/26 May 2019) would be easy. An extension to the end of June 2019 (before the new Parliament session opens on 2 July 2019) would probably also be easy if Brexit had been confirmed so it is clear the UK would not take part in the EP elections.

Any longer extension would be difficult because the UK would need to hold EP elections and send MEPs for a time. So the EU would only agree to that if it was in their interests (like a referendum with a Remain option).

The Withdrawal Agreement as a mechanism

So far the focus has been on an extension of the Article 50 negotiation period. That would require the agreement of both the UK and of all EU27 member states. But there is another way: the Withdrawal Agreement could come into force on whatever day is chosen.

Active Remainers – like me – are often told that we ‘never accepted the (2016) Referendum result,’ as though this were a defect, a sin, even a crime.

Should we be concerned?

Well, first of all, it depends what’s actually being alleged of us. ‘Never accepted the Referendum result’ … as what, exactly?

As the numerical outcome of the vote? Well in that sense, yes, obviously, we do accept it.

As the outpouring of frustration, anger at being neglected, at feeling marginalised or even silenced? Yes, certainly.

As the seizing by many of an apparently rare opportunity to make known their feelings? Well, apparently, yes.

BUT…

As an informed view of where lay the real causes of that neglect and marginalisation? No, not for a second.

As an informed judgement on the actual impact upon their lives of European Union policy, legislation, regulation and investment?

It is generally accepted that there is a housing crisis in Britain. A cross party review has concluded that Britain needs three million more social homes. Housing associations are charged with meeting the need for affordable housing by building new homes. These are funded through government grants, loans that are funded from surpluses and cross-subsidy from activities such as selling houses at market value. Housing associations also need to keep their expenditure within what can be afforded given the rents that they collect.

The European Union has never involved itself in housing policy and there are no European regulations affecting housing in Britain or any other member state. The UK government makes housing policy in England and it is a devolved responsibility in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. However, the impact that Brexit will have on housing associations and their ability to provide affordable homes will be negative and significant in all parts of Britain.

The Regulator of Social Housing (a government body that regulates housing associations in England) is giving advice to housing associations about what they should do about Brexit. Speaking to the Social Housing Annual Conference in January, Simon Dow, the Chair of th Regulator, referred to the Bank of England’s forecasts about the effects of a ‘disorderly Brexit’ on the economy. These include a fall in Gross Domestic Product of 8%, an increase in unemployment to 7.5%, an increase in inflation to 6.5%, a reduction in house values of 30% and an increase in interest rates to 5.5%. These would all have an adverse impact on housing associations. He then advised that:

“Providers must be stress testing for Brexit and ensuring that they have the mitigation strategies in place that they can implement.”

Following this, Paul Hackett, Chief Executive of Optivo Housing Association told the ‘Inside Housing’ magazine that they had stress tested a scenario where property values fell by 35% resulting in a 25% reduction in the number of new homes developed. He concluded that government would have to mitigate this by more than doubling what it was prepared to provide in grants:

“We would need to have a conversation with government about using grant in a counter- cyclical way... On rented homes, we would need around 50% of cost on new builds (in grant) ... This would be higher if shared ownership was taken out of the picture.”

However, Jeanne Harrison of Moody’s (an agency that provides credit ratings for housing associations) told ‘Inside Housing’ that

“Government support for associations (through grants) ... could also decline if the public finances are stretched as the government attempts to mitigate the broader impacts of... Brexit.

Another credit rating agency - Standard & Poor’s - has warned that a no-deal Brexit would lead to the downgrading of the credit ratings of about half the housing associations in Britain with associations that provide market sale housing being downgraded the most. They told ‘Inside Housing’ that:

“We can reasonably expect certain negative shocks to the UK social housing sector... Sharp declines in house prices and the higher average inflation in... 2020/21... would shrink operating margins which, in turn, would reduce earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation margins. Moreover, we forecast a reduction in social housing lettings while we consider housing associations will increasingly struggle to increase social housing rents in 2020/21.”

Lower credit ratings would make it more difficult for housing associations to raise loans and would increase the interest rates at which they could borrow. Many housing associations are borrowing extensively in advance of Brexit to mitigate the risk of not being able to borrow afterwards.

The construction industry is dependent on imported components and labour. The UK imports £10billion of construction materials a year and the proportion of construction workers from outside the UK is 20% nationally and 56% in London. A falling pound, tariff and other barriers at ports and the ending of Free Movement is likely to result in increased construction prices and shortages of materials and labour.

On 23 March the Put It to the People March will take place in Westminster. It will be an opportunity to demonstrate the ever-growing opposition to the Brexit deal offered by the Prime Minister and, in particular, the real risk that the UK will crash out of the EU as soon as 29 March.

The march on Westminster last October gave a huge boost to the People's Vote campaign. Hundreds of thousands of us showed up from all over the UK. We showed the depth of feeling across the land

Now, with just days before our notice to leave the EU expires and still with no arrangements in place to manage the transition, it is essential to show our support for the parties already supporting a People's Vote (including the Lib Dems, the SNP, Plaid Cymru & the Greens), to encourage the Labour Party, which remains open to the idea; and to encourage the Conservative Party MPs who are fighting a no-deal Brexit.

My home town is what you might call a singular place. I don’t think there’s anywhere else in the UK quite like it. Geographically in England, but culturally, ethnically, spiritually, it’s a Celtic and a world city. Because of our port history, our roots extend to the four corners of the world. We are first and foremost Scousers, true internationalists, our identities not limited to the borders of one country.

Not surprisingly, then, Liverpool voted to remain in the EU. We also have a strong radical political tradition here. We have taken enough blows from successive governments, and we know when another one is on the horizon, and let’s call out Brexit for what it is: the brainchild of the right wing of the Tory Party. It is not an anti-establishment uprising. Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Farage, Banks? Anti-establishment? Do me a favour. Brexit is the long-term plan of a group of rich white men, for whom internationalism of the sort the EU embodies is anathema. It is part of a broader plan to reduce the UK to a deregulated, low wage, Western version of Singapore. It will make us all poorer, in many ways, and it will hit the poorest worst of all. Here in Liverpool, we’re not going to take that.

For me, the EU is about much more than economics, even though this too is important. The foundations of the EU were laid after the war, at a time of destruction, chaos, forced mass migrations, revolutions, civil wars, retribution and starvation. Leaders at the time realised that Europe needed to come together to end centuries of war by building cooperation, at first through trade and economic prosperity.

This made Europe the most stable and rich it had ever been, raising living standards for hundreds of millions of people. I remember when we joined the Common Market in 1973, the UK was a weaker, poorer country than its neighbours; since then we have caught up and have been able to contribute - for example, by leading the drive towards the single market and free movement that Brexiteers now want to abandon.

By 1990, the EU was crucial in supporting former Communist countries in Eastern Europe as they democratised and I have discovered recently how much the EU backed peace in Ireland too when the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1997. This work involved more than trade and economics.